Research

A non-exhaustive list of public research I have led, co-authored or supported.

Research Published at Mastercard

How working from home reshapes cities 29 Oct 2024

Co-authored report Nick Bloom (Stanford University) and Arjun Ramani (MIT)

Accepted in Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences (PNAS)

Clicks and commutes: The link between hybrid work and online shopping 20 May 2024

Co-authored report with Scott Baker (Northwestern University), Nick Bloom (Stanford University) and Ethan Harris (Mastercard Economics Institute Senior Advisor)

Travel Trends 2024: Breaking Boundaries 14 May 2024

Eventful Economy: Total Eclipse of the Economy 12 Apr 2024

The Swift Lift: Estimating the sales lift attributable to Taylor Swift 05 Feb 2024

Tourism Fuels Economic Diversification in the Gulf states 23 Sep 2023

Australia’s Economic Clock 30 Jun 2023

NYC’s Economic Clock 25 May 2023

Economic Outlook 2023: A Consumer Lens on the Multi-Speed Global Economy 12 Dec 2022

Shifting Wallets: New Consumer Spending Habits 17 Sep 2022

Travel 2022: Trends & Transitions 18 May 2022

E-commerce During Covid: Stylized Facts from 47 Economies 28 Jan 2022

Co-authored report with Alberto Cavallo (Harvard), Prachi Mishra (IMF), Antonio Spilimbergo (IMF) and Bricklin Dwyer (Mastercard)

Economy 2022: An in focus view of the year ahead 01 Dec 2021

Small Business Reset: Challenges and opportunities for small and medium-sized businesses around the globe 06 Oct 2021

Ready for Takeoff? Travel Trends, 2021 and Beyond 29 Jun 2021

Commerce E-volution: An in-depth look at retail's digital acceleration 16 Mar 2021

Economy 2021: Global Outlook Report 07 Dec 2020

Travel Check In: A Global Perspective 29 Jul 2020

The Shift to Digital 06 Jun 2020

Research Published at BNP Paribas
note: must be a BNP Paribas client to access this research

SHOWCASED REPORTS

Focus: August Beige Book: Signs of fatigue 04 Sep 2019
Applying an NLP algorithm I developed to quantitatively assess sentiment of the Fed's Beige Book.

Focus: Tell me how you really feel 19 Jul 2019
The rollout of a new tool for tracking sentiment of communication from the Federal Reserve. In this paper, I document a natural language processing algorithm I developed. This model was leveraged for tracking sentiment across verbal speeches and text. The algorithm was applied to a market US Rates trading model.

Flash: Meet Sam, our AI research assistant 30 Oct 2018
Introduction to a model I developed that disaggregates every component of US GDP to the account level, and evaluates whether it is above or below potential (i.e. over/under where it "should" be).
Focus: US/China Trade: The Long Haul 15 Oct 2018
Evaluation of trade disputes between the U.S. and China, including scenario analysis of potential outcomes and construction of U.S. equity basket composed of stocks most reactive to news headlines surrounding the dispute.

OTHER RESEARCH NOTES

Flash: US Q4 2019 GDP – Import slump masking weakness 30 Jan 2020

Markets 360 Presentations: US Outlook - In search of calmer waters 27 Jan 2020

Data Watch: US - December Inflation Watch - Hiccup 14 Jan 2020

Flash: US Payrolls - Still more slack? 10 Jan 2020

Flash: Dove-Hawk Distribution of FOMC participants 07 Jan 2020

Data Watch: November Inflation Watch - Solid at the core 11 Dec 2019

Flash: US Payrolls - Jobsgiving 06 Dec 2019

Markets 360 Presentations: US Outlook - Guiding Downward 15 Nov 2019

Data Watch: US inflation watch - Changing dynamics 13 Nov 2019

Flash: US Payrolls – Nothing spooky about October 01 Nov 2019

Data Watch: Inflation Watch - October Update 24 Oct 2019